Table 2 Data parameters in model

 a) intervention – adherent group (n = 236)

35.2% (4.7%)

29.8% (4.0%)

Beta

Trial

 b) usual care

24.2% (3.0%)

19.7% (2.5%)

Beta

Trial

 Relapse rate from 24 weeks (end of trial) to 12 months

21%

^a

[25]

 Relapse rates after 12 months

30% cumulative

^a

[26]

 Annual incidence

eg 0.00180^b

eg 0.00165^b

Beta

[27]

 Proportion – early stage lung cancer (I&II)

20%

^a

[14]

 Proportion – adv stage lung cancer (III&IV)

80%

^a

[14]

 Relative risk of lung cancer in ex-smokers vs. general population

eg 1.771

^a

[14]

15 years after quitting^b

 Annual incidence

eg 0.03095^b

eg 0.01843^b

Beta

[28]

 Relative risk of CVD in smokers vs. general population

1.42 (0.031)

^a

LogNormal

[29]

 Relative risk of CVD in ex-smokers vs. smokers

0.71 (0.036)

^a

LogNormal

[29]

 a) pre-hospital death given a CVD event

18.1%

^a

[30]

 b) post-hospital death given a CVD event (≤28 days)

7.1%

^a

[30]

 c) background mortality (annual)

eg 0.01071^b

eg 0.00715^b

Beta

[31]

  baseline

0.800

^a

Trial

  continue smoking after end of trial

0.800

^a

Assumption

  abstain from smoking at end of trial

0.830

^a

[11]

 b) early stage lung cancer

0.73 (0.020)

^a

Beta

[14]

  adv stage lung cancer

0.56 (0.043)

^a

Beta

[9]

 c) weighted average CVD

0.611

[9, 10]

 a) lung cancer, first year of diagnosis

eg 23,970^b

eg 22,256^b

Gamma

[13]

  lung cancer, subsequent annual costs before death

eg 5,375^b

eg 4,341^b

Gamma

[13]

  lung cancer, last six months before cancer death

eg 16,615^b

eg 20,300^b

Gamma

[13]

 b) CVD, first year of diagnosis if hospitalised

eg 11,327^b

eg 10,189^b

Gamma

[13]

  CVD, last six months before CVD death

eg 17,573^b

eg 11,048^b

Gamma

[13]